A Case for the Consumer Last week, the equity markets rose supported by mounting evidence of disinflation and solid results from JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and other large banks. The gains were muted by the release of the Fed’s March FOMC minutes on Wednesday and...
Grizzly Declines Shortly after we posted last week’s “Where Are the Bears?” commentary, our ursine friends awoke from their slumber Monday morning, mauling investors who had celebrated another record close on the S&P 500 the previous Friday. The twin terrors of...
All Eyes on Inflation Investors were concerned by COVID-19 related developments in Europe, where Austria announced a full national lockdown due to a spike in cases, and Germany mandated new restrictions for unvaccinated people. In the U.S. the number of daily new...
Last Week: The economic data was fairly consistent with expectations, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of fourth-quarter GDP increased to 4.3% from the last estimate in February of 4.1%. Personal Income declined 7.1% month over month, after jumping 10% in...
Last Week: The economic outlook continued to brighten, with the pandemic subsiding and the potent combination of monetary and fiscal policies priming the growth pump. The Big Bad Bond market growled as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 1.64%, hitting...
Last Week: We were often reminded during the recent challenging economic period that the market climbs the wall of worry. The inverse proposition might caution that the market can slide down the chute of good cheer. Following up on our most recent commentary, the...
Last Week: Trading was extremely volatile with the VIX surging over 50% to 33.09 and the S&P 500 shedding 3.31%. It seems worth noting that these spikes in volatility and sell-offs in equities occur regularly and should not be alarming. What is alarming is the...
Last Week: All three major large cap stock market indexes closed at all-time highs Friday as Congress appeared to make progress toward passing a COVID-19 stimulus bill. A weaker than expected rise in November non-farm payrolls had the bad-news-is-good-news effect on...
Last Week: The Chicago and Wall Street Bears were both in hibernation as Thanksgiving gave way to winter. I turned off the game versus the Packers last night at halftime. Without Akeem Hicks in the middle, my 18-month old granddaughter Jane could probably gain 5 yards...
As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday, it would be an epic understatement to say that 2020 has been a most unusual year. In our family my birthday on March 12 comes first in the calendar and my son Alex’s on November 19th comes last. Flashing back to March 12th, I...
Markets: What a difference a week makes. A blue undertow (Biden won, but the Senate appeared likely to remain with a Republican majority) swept into the sea of red and turned the market green. Volatility vanished and FOMOTINATE (Fear Of Missing Out There Is No...
Markets: It was the worst week in the market since March, with the S&P 500 sinking 5.6% and small caps faring even worse shedding 6.22%. Volatility surged with the VIX spiking 38% to match its highest level since June. The chart below shows the percentage changes...
Markets: The high for the week was set on the opening Monday morning, but those modest gains quickly evaporated by lunch time as the S&P went negative -0.5%, and basically stayed around that level the rest of the week. Small and Mid-Cap stocks fared slightly...
For the next few weeks, we are going to format the Blog to cover the topics that seem to be of most interest, those being the markets, stimulus, economic reports, earnings reports, and COVID-19. We would appreciate any relevant feedback on this new layout. The...
Last Week: From Dictionary.com: Stimulus (stim-yuh-luhs), noun. In economics, a stimulus is a government injection of money into an economy and intended to spur (stimulate) economic growth. If William Shakespeare were around in 2020 he might have penned “to stimulate,...
Last Week: The song remained the same on Wall Street with a disconcerting level of COVID-19 cases and deaths combined with dysfunctional drama in D.C., somewhat offset by promising vaccine development announcements. The market experienced roller coaster daily swings...
Last Week: Hot tech IPOs and renewed optimism on the development of COVID-19 vaccines provided a springboard for a rally in the markets on Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting poked the bears back into action. The Nasdaq 100 sank as much as 2.8%...
Last Week: Mega-cap tech stocks carried the S&P 500 to a new record high, with Apple accounting for 60% of the 0.7% weekly gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite jumped 2.65% and is now up 26.07% for 2020. The breadth of the market needed a tic-tac as decliners...
Last Week: In our May 18 Kuby’s Commentary (Happy Birthday Brooke Kuby) we noted the extraordinarily difficult year small cap stocks were having, posting more than double the S&P 500’s decline. In an attempt to “accentuate the positive”, we suggested that “when...
Last Week: The good news of corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2019 exceeding forecasts was overshadowed by concerns over the impact of the coronavirus on future earnings. Estimates of first quarter earnings growth have been slashed approximately in half so...
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