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MOV

Black Friday

Sale! Sale! Sale! All was quiet on the Wall Street front prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, with a modest rally triggered Monday morning after President Biden renominated Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for a second term. The economic data was in-line with...

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Cloudy with a Chance of Cloudy

Gloomy or Growth-y? The stock market continues to chug along to new record highs despite the extraordinary challenges presented by the pandemic during the last 18 months, as well as the stiffening headwinds still to be confronted with new variants, a bloated national...

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Market Soars on Dovishness

Powell's Policy Persists On Friday, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Chairman Powell delivered the message that whereas tapering is coming, the Delta variant makes the timing uncertain. He also made it clear that the plan to taper does not suggest that any...

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Confidence Crackdown

'Stunning Loss of Confidence' So far 2021 has provided an incredibly smooth ride for investors, but the news flow last week suggested some turbulence on the horizon. The Delta Covid-19 variant cases and deaths surged, both consumer and producer prices spiked, consumer...

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Credit is Money

Last Week: The economic data was fairly consistent with expectations, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of fourth-quarter GDP increased to 4.3% from the last estimate in February of 4.1%. Personal Income declined 7.1% month over month, after jumping 10% in...

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The Bulls are Back

Last Week: The Bulls are back, and I am not talking about the Chicago Bulls. The stock market rebounded from its brief slump to post its best weekly gains since November, with the S&P 500 bouncing 4.65%. Small cap stocks continued their recent surge, as the...

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Rally Interrupted on Repeat

Last Week: I could just repost last week’s commentary and just change the specific numbers as the storyline was essentially a rerun. In fact, I will: The stock market party was disrupted as the Coronavirus upset the apple cart. Corporate earnings reports were strong...

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Thanksgiving Gravy on Hot Market

Last Week: The market climbed to new highs early in the week as trade deal optimism grew after China indicated that it was taking steps to tighten intellectual property rules. The Bears took over later in the week (Chicago Bears 24, Detroit Lions 20 on Thanksgiving)...

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Ebb & Flow and a Field Goal

Last Week: The economic releases were consistent with a slowing economy in August, with the manufacturing ISM cracking below the 50 level (contraction) and the BLS jobs report coming in at 130,000 versus an estimate of 158,000. Neither of those reports should be cause...

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The China Seesaw: Short Shallow Swings

Last Week: Once again the market movement seemed to be dictated by the tone of the trade talks. Whereas there were no actual developments, a Chinese request for “calm” in the trade war and the absence of any inflammatory tweets from the White House combined to lift...

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Not So Very Merry Month of May

Last Week: The focus was clearly on trade issues, with bad news bookends from China and Mexico. Early in the week China indicated that it would retaliate to recent U.S. actions by using its 80% dominance of rare-earth metals used in high tech gear. Technology shares...

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End of Quarter Lyft

Last Week: The previous Friday the market had dropped sharply as the Ten-Year Treasury rate reach a yield less than the Three-Month Treasury rate, stoking recessionary concerns and triggering sell programs. By Monday afternoon, those concerns were old news, and the...

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Baby It’s Cold Outside

Last Week: Baby, it’s cold outside, and on Wall Street. Parenthetically, the Frank Loesser classic holiday song of that title (the “Elf” rendition is my favorite) has been banned from certain radio stations, but that’s a topic for a different forum. The glow from the...

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Higher

Last Week: Another record high for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% and the Russell 2000 0.87%. There wasn’t much news, fake or otherwise, driving the action, and volume was light in the pre-holiday week trading. One might say the song remains the...

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