Historical Impacts of Military Conflicts on Equity Markets While recognizing that the future of humanity has been permanently altered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our commentary will remain focused on the stock market and economy during this crisis rather than on...
531,000 Jobs In 1929, just prior to the Great Crash of the New York Stock Market, Milton Ager, and Jack Yellen recorded, “Happy Days Are Here Again.” Happy days are here again The skies above are clear again So let's sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here...
Shifting Sentiment Growing up in the 1970s and 1980s, a favorite pastime game was tug-of-war. Two teams pull on different ends of a rope until one group can get the flag in the middle past whatever obstacle separated the two groups – the game was particularly...
Corporate Earnings Going for Gold; Economic Data Reaches for Silver February 17th is a special day; in that, it is the birthday of both Michael Jordan and my wife. It also marked the top of the Chinese stock market, which has subsequently nosedived over 25%, including...
Last Week: “The heat is on, it’s on (Wall and Main) street, the heat is on, on, on." The economy has been rebounding sharply, and with that rebound, there has been a surge in inflationary pressures and related concerns over interest rate increases. As such, the market...
Last Week: Mr. Market, like Disneyland’s Mr. Toad, had a wild ride. Toad, borrowed from “The Wind in the Willows”, regularly becomes obsessed with current fads, only to abandon them abruptly. That sounds like a reasonably good description of most of the trading...
Last Week: The employment report for April released on Friday indicated that there were 266,000 new jobs added, versus the approximately one million that was forecasted. Additionally, March’s number was reduced by 246,000 jobs, suggesting that there are approximately...
Last Week: On Monday all 11 sectors rallied and the S&P posted its biggest daily gain since June, as the combination over the previous weekend of the positive vaccine news from Johnson & Johnson, the approval of the stimulus plan by the House, and a decline of...
Last Week: Hot tech IPOs and renewed optimism on the development of COVID-19 vaccines provided a springboard for a rally in the markets on Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting poked the bears back into action. The Nasdaq 100 sank as much as 2.8%...
Last Week: The market continued to rebound fueled by better than expected corporate earnings, hope for another round of helicopter money from the government, and optimism over COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics development. Reality Check: 1) Second quarter earnings...
Last Week: The glass is half empty: For Q2 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -35.7%. If -35.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q4 2008 (-69.1%). The...
Last Week: It was a pretty quiet news week, as the Wall Street Bears remained in hibernation, while the Chicago Bears emerged (a win is a win). As we moved into the ninth inning of earnings season, the blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported...
Last Week: In the summer of 1983, while I was preparing to enter the training program at Drexel Burnham Lambert, the hilarious comedy “Trading Places” was released. The climax of the movie is the year-end release of the USDA report on the orange crop forecast, as all...
Last Week: If you crawled under a rock on Sunday night and emerged on Friday afternoon and checked in on the markets, you would come to the conclusion that not much had happened. The S&P 500 finished down 0.33%, while the Dollar, Gold , and VIX (Volatility Index)...
Last Week: The S&P 500 declined 1.01% and the Russell 2000 sank 2.52% as trade, IPO, impeachment, and economic concerns dictated the mood on Wall Street. The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slipped 9 basis points to 1.68% and the Dollar gained 0.5% to test its...
In early November 2016 the Fed Funds Rate was 0.25% and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury was just under 2%. The consensus opinion was that rates had been artificially low since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but that it was time to normalize those rates. Turn the...
Last Week: Legend has it that a young man ventured to inquire J.P. Morgan’s opinion as to the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become classic: “Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.” From February 2016 until February 2018 the...
Last Week: Concerns that the porridge was getting too cold appear to have been unwarranted. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit record highs as strong earnings reports and economic reports fueled investor enthusiasm. Earnings season is about half way over and...
Last Week: The headline in “The Trader” section of Barron’s was “The Market Did Nearly Nothing This Week”, as the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% in holiday-shortened trading. What little action there was in the market was focused on the IPOs of “Unicorns” (companies with...
Last Week: Alongside the Chicago Bears, the Wall Street bears were major losers this week. It was the best of times, as there was news that moderated the bear market narrative driven by concerns over the economy, fed policy, and the trade war. As for the economy,...
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